The Trump Effect on Deglobalisation: Empirical Evidence of the Cooperation Paradox amid Technological Acceleration
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34021/ve.2025.08.02(4)Keywords:
deglobalisation, international cooperation, cooperation paradox, selective deglobalisation, technological acceleration, information and communication technology, digital nationalismAbstract
This study investigates the economic, sociological, and political consequences of Donald Trump’s 2025 protectionist trade policies, aiming to understand how public experiences influence attitudes toward international cooperation. It addresses gaps in existing research by revealing that negative policy experiences may paradoxically strengthen support for multilateralism. The analysis is contextualized within accelerating scientific and technological progress, particularly developments in information and communication technologies, arguing that forces once driving hyper-globalization now increasingly contribute to selective deglobalization. A convergent parallel mixed-methods design is applied, combining a systematic literature review of 160 sources (2016–2025) with an original survey of 209 respondents from 17 countries. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson’s correlation coefficients, and thematic analysis to explore relationships between economic consequences, social attitudes, and political preferences. Results reveal a significant “cooperation paradox:” among respondents reporting negative national impacts from Trump’s policies (67.9%), support for international cooperation remains very high (85.2%), with a statistically significant negative correlation between perceived national harm and opposition to cooperation (r = –0.20, p < 0.01). The study also identifies a “macro–personal disconnect,” where perceptions of national economic harm exceed reported personal financial deterioration (r = –0.44, p < 0.001). These findings provide the first empirical evidence of this cooperation paradox, challenging theories linking negative economic experiences with isolationism. The study introduces selective deglobalisation as a theoretical concept describing rational public learning, where harmful policies are rejected while commitment to revised multilateral frameworks is reinforced. Integrating technological transformation into this analysis deepens understanding of public opinion on globalisation and offers valuable insights for policymakers.
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